Polymarket Liquidity Risk

Which Polymarket reward markets have historically been most toxic for liquidity providers — measured, not guessed.

Last updated 2026-08-10T22:11:12Z · 88 reward markets analysed · updated daily · free

Read this before you use the numbers. A high toxicity score does not mean a market will lose money. It means that historically, liquidity providers in that market were filled shortly before the price moved against them. This is a measurement of past adverse-selection risk, not a prediction of your results, and it says nothing about whether a market's reward pool compensates you for that risk. This is analytics and risk information — not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not a signal to trade.

Most toxic reward markets right now

#Market Toxicity (7d)
$ per $1k		 Prior 7d Markout
¢/share		 Persistence Reward pool
$/day		 Risk
1 Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 455.51 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 58 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 17.12 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -455.51 -17.12 -14.515 Newly elevated $26.00 Extreme
2 Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 403.78 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 19 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers gained 35.14 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -403.78 35.14 -4.085 Newly elevated $30.00 Extreme
3 Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 364.77 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 49 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 0.25 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -364.77 -0.25 -14.405 Newly elevated $24.00 Extreme
4 Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 238.51 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 16 trades. No comparable prior-window sample. Not enough history in the prior window to judge persistence.
 -238.51 — -7.205 Insufficient data $25.00 Extreme
5 Will Amanda Janoo win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 201.82 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 59 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers gained 4.06 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -201.82 4.06 -4.745 Newly elevated $51.00 Extreme
6 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 192.11 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 189 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 24.77 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -192.11 -24.77 -0.559 Newly elevated $20.00 Extreme
7 Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 184.2 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 28 trades. No comparable prior-window sample. Not enough history in the prior window to judge persistence.
 -184.2 — -6.729 Insufficient data $56.00 Extreme
8 Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 180.63 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 63 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 281.76 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -180.63 -281.76 -6.5 Persistent $36.00 Extreme
9 Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 106.09 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 54 trades. No comparable prior-window sample. Not enough history in the prior window to judge persistence.
 -106.09 — -5.676 Insufficient data $55.00 Extreme
10 Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 98 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 34 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers gained 62.88 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -98 62.88 -0.976 Newly elevated $31.00 High
11 Will Matt Klein be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 88.7 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 225 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers gained 63.84 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -88.7 63.84 -1.791 Newly elevated $105.00 High
12 Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 84.44 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 89 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 145.67 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -84.44 -145.67 -1.935 Persistent $43.00 High
13 Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 78.08 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 15 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 43.65 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -78.08 -43.65 -0.236 Persistent $32.00 High
14 Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 71.15 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 28 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 49.8 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -71.15 -49.8 -8.582 Persistent $86.00 High
15 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 65.08 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 2383 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers gained 9.7 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -65.08 9.7 -1.079 Newly elevated $500.00 High
16 Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 56.86 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 118 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 53.15 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -56.86 -53.15 -2.106 Persistent $25.00 High
17 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 52.44 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 35 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 76.87 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -52.44 -76.87 -4.698 Persistent $20.00 High
18 Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 51.51 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 344 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 136.91 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -51.51 -136.91 -1.292 Persistent $104.00 High
19 Will John Larson be the Democratic nominee for CT-01?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 51.47 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 178 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 20.77 per $1,000. Elevated only in the most recent window — treat as a weaker, less-confirmed signal.
 -51.47 -20.77 -0.922 Newly elevated $96.00 High
20 Will Aly Richards win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election?
Over the last 7 days makers lost 46.71 per $1,000 of volume they filled, across 64 trades. In the previous 7-day window makers lost 43.8 per $1,000. Elevated in both 7-day windows — this is the pattern that persisted out-of-sample in our testing.
 -46.71 -43.8 -3.14 Persistent $49.00 High
How to read the toxicity column. It is maker profit or loss in dollars per $1,000 of volume you filled. A value of -15.00 means that for every $1,000 of orders that got hit, makers were on average $15 worse off one hour later. Compare that against the reward pool you would be sharing.

Would this information change your liquidity decision?

Anonymous, one click, no email and no account. If you actually provide liquidity, this is the single most useful thing you can tell us — including if the answer is no.

Methodology

What is measured

Every public trade has a maker on the other side. We take the maker's side of each trade and measure where the market's midpoint sits one hour later.

Toxicity

Total maker profit/loss divided by total notional filled. Normalised so big and small markets are comparable. Negative = adverse for LPs.

Data

Polymarket's public CLOB and data APIs. 10-minute midpoint series, trade tape paginated per market. No private or paid data.

Risk buckets

Percentiles of this universe, not absolute thresholds. Extreme = bottom 10%, High = bottom 25%, Medium = bottom 50%, Low = above median.

What we deliberately do not do. There is no composite "opportunity score" here. We tested combined reward/volume/toxicity formulas out-of-sample and they overfit — one scored t=8.9 in-sample and t=0.16 out-of-sample. Past toxicity on its own was the signal that survived. So that is all we publish.

What the testing showed. Across 1,207 market-days over 32 days, toxicity persisted from one day to the next (rank correlation 0.39, positive in 30 of 31 day-pairs) and did not meaningfully decay over 14 days. Importantly, markets that were bad tended to stay bad; markets that were good did not reliably stay good. That is why this page is a list of what to be careful with, not a list of what to buy.

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Why trust the numbers

Every figure on this page is reproducible from public APIs with no key. The collector and the exact methodology are documented, and the raw per-market-day data is kept separate from the calculated scores so you can check the arithmetic yourself. If you find an error, tell us and we will fix it and say so.